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Gcvtexm's avatar

One question for anyone who wants to opine - can someone provide an argument as to why any of these tier 2 GPU cloud companies (e.g., Coreweave, Llamda Labs, Nebius, etc.) should exist in 5 years in the context of competing against the hyperscalers (e.g., AMZN, MSFT, GCP, ORCL, etc.)?

"I have spent some time studying Coreweave / Llamda Labs in the context of some companies who serve the datacenter supply chain and supply to these companies, and I have not been able to come up with a reasonable argument to the affirmative.

Coreweave all but admitted to me that the initial reason for their existence and success was due to 1) the fact that there was a worldwide GPU shortage, and 2) at least for the time being, NVDA is incentivized to spread GPU allocation in a way that props up these tier 2 GPU clouds so that the hyperscalers who are currently trying to disintermediate them with custom ASIC accelerators do not dominate the early stages of AI accelerated compute. That only works so long as GPU compute remains in a constrained supply environment, and particularly where NVDA remains dominant with 90%+ share.

In a world where GPU compute is no longer constrained (e.g., 3 years, 5 years from now, I don't know, but eventually), how can these tier 2 GPU cloud companies compete with the hyperscalers, and why would any customer use them? The resale of compute and storage is in some ways a commodity (setting aside the ecosystem effects the hyperscalers have via their marketplaces), and the hyperscalers have enormous scale advantages and lower costs of capital which ensures their costs will be lower. Additionally, if I am your standard F500 or any enterprise for that matter, all of my data is on some combination of AWS, Azure, GCP already. Why would I go through the enormous effort to move that data (which is needed for AI to work) to some tier 2 company to use its GPU compute capacity?

I genuinely don't understand why any of these companies have a place in the world over a medium to long-term horizon, but am looking for someone to argue the other side here."

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Michael Spencer's avatar

This will indeed be an important AI Infrastructure IPO to function as a barometer for the Datacenter capex absurdity we have witnessed.

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